State of the Union: Public Safety, Said and Unsaid
President Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address touched on public safety in several places, presenting what he characterized as major wins on crime and law enforcement. Some of those claims hold up well under scrutiny. Others require significant context – and in at least one case, the president’s framing was factually incorrect. Several critical issues went unmentioned entirely.
The Murder Rate Claim: Largely Supported, but Context Is Essential
The president told Congress “last year, the murder rate saw its single largest decline in recorded history … the lowest number in over 125 years.” Preliminary research largely supports the first part. Homicides fell roughly 21 percent across 35 major cities in 2025, and the projected national rate of about 4 per 100,000 would mark the largest single-year percentage decline on record. An analysis of more than 100 police departments confirmed homicides have fallen roughly 38 percent since the 2020 peak.
The “125 years” framing, however, requires a caveat. Pre-1960 data is not directly comparable to modern Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) records, and pre-1930 figures tracked all homicides—including justifiable ones—not just murders. Experts say the rate is likely the lowest in at least 65 years.
More importantly, multiple independent fact-checks confirmed the decline began in 2022, not 2025. According to one crime statistician, “We saw a record drop in murder in 2023, 2024, and then again in 2025 … the roots of it are probably stuff that happened in the 2021-2022 time frame.” The causes remain unclear, with possible influences including changes in criminal justice policies, shifts in technology, and broader social and economic trends.
The decline is real, substantial, and welcome. The question for policymakers is whether evidence-based approaches that sustain these gains are being prioritized.
The Zarutska Case: A Real Tragedy, Mischaracterized
The president recognized the mother of Iryna Zarutska, a 23-year-old Ukrainian refugee fatally stabbed on a train in August of 2025 in Charlotte, North Carolina. He described her killer as “a hardened criminal set free to kill in America” who “came in through open borders.” That last claim is false. The suspect is a U.S. citizen born and raised in Charlotte. He has no immigration history. Public records confirm he attended West Charlotte High School and has lived in Mecklenburg County his entire life.
The underlying policy issue—Brown’s 14 prior criminal cases and release on cashless bail despite a documented history of mental illness—is a legitimate and serious concern. North Carolina lawmakers responded with legislation tightening bail restrictions. But attributing her death to immigration policy undermines the credibility of a case that should be driving a conversation about mental health intervention and public transit safety.
Washington, D.C.: Real Progress, Real Caveats
The president told the chamber that D.C. has “almost no crime anymore.” The underlying trend is significant: 127 homicides in 2025—the lowest since 2017—with overall violent crime down 29 percent and year-to-date homicides down 67 percent.
However, fact-checkers noted that “almost no crime” is inaccurate – nine homicides, 126 assaults with a dangerous weapon, and 322 motor vehicle thefts have been recorded since January 1. The Justice Department reported in 2025 that D.C. violent crime had already hit a 30-year low in 2024. Other analyses found shootings began declining months before the National Guard deployment, and it had been reported that violent crime was already down roughly 20 percent before the federal surge began. The deployment may have accelerated an existing trend, but isolating its specific impact remains difficult.
The president’s remarks suggested staffing challenges have been addressed, but the law enforcement staffing crisis remains the central barrier to sustained progress. Deployment of federal resources may temporarily bridge personnel gaps, but durable safety requires well-resourced local police departments. Research has shown that addressing recruitment and retention promotes operational readiness, reduces the strain on officers, and fosters a workforce that reflects the needs of the communities.
What Else Was Missing
The DHS shutdown. The president called on Congress to restore full U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding, blaming Democrats for shuttering “the agency responsible for protecting Americans from terrorists and murderers.” But the standoff is more complicated than that framing suggests. The department has been shut down since February 14 after Democrats pledged to withhold funding unless Congress enacts reforms to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) following the fatal shootings of two U.S. citizens by federal agents during immigration enforcement operations in Minneapolis. Several of the Democratic demands, particularly body cameras and use-of-force standards, align with principles that professional law enforcement has long supported, and that the president himself has endorsed. The Senate has yet to advance a funding measure and the two sides remain far apart.
The data infrastructure crisis. Any honest assessment of crime trends depends on the quality of the data behind them – and that infrastructure is under significant strain. In 2025, the federal government shut down the National Law Enforcement Accountability Database (NLEAD) without explanation, eliminating a tool that helped prevent officers with misconduct histories from transferring between agencies. Analysts have argued that accountability mechanisms protect good cops, not just the public. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) lacks sufficient funding to fully administer the National Crime Victimization Survey, which experts have called “absolutely critical” for understanding crimes never reported to police. The FBI’s transition from legacy crime reporting to the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) created further gaps when roughly 40 percent of agencies failed to report in 2021. Without reliable data on use of force, misconduct, and victimization, evaluating whether policing tactics are working becomes guesswork.
The staffing crisis. Reports indicate that hundreds of agencies remain significantly short-staffed. A national survey of more than 1,100 agencies found over 70 percent reported recruitment has become more difficult, and 65 percent have had to reduce services because of shortages. The answer, as research has argued, is not lowering standards, but modernizing recruitment, investing in officer wellness, and making policing a sustainable career.
The Bottom Line
The state of public safety in America is somewhat better than it was a few years ago. The data confirms that. But the decline began before the current administration, the causes remain disputed, and the mechanisms the president highlighted, such as federal surges and National Guard deployments, are inherently temporary. When verifiable claims are mixed with even one false statement, it undermines the credibility of the progress that is real. And when the data systems needed to verify any of these claims are being defunded, deleted, or left to deteriorate, policymakers are flying blind.
The president has remained steadfast in his commitment to supporting law enforcement – and he should use that commitment to press Congress to ensure that all law enforcement, especially federal agents operating in American communities, have what they need to do their jobs safely, transparently, and effectively. Durable public safety requires structural investment: local police hiring, federal body cameras, and a data infrastructure worthy of the decisions it is supposed to inform.