“We’ve dealt with inflation in auto parts and skilled labor since the supply-chain tightening during Covid,” said Jerry Theodorou, director of the finance, insurance and trade policy program for R Street Institute, a nonprofit public-policy research organization. Those subcomponents of inflation have abated only recently, he added…

To soften the blow to consumers, the US could seek alternative supply-chain options, potentially in Brazil or Ecuador, though it will take time to compensate for the lost business with China and Mexico, according to Theodorou.

Still, it remains to be seen whether Trump will eventually follow through on his threats.

“We need to distinguish between rhetoric and reality,” Theodorou said. “Trump was unpredictable in his first administration.”