What We Didn’t Hear at the Hearing
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin kicked off the annual rounds of agency hat-passing along with other Department of Defense (DOD) officials at the first Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) hearing on the DOD’s Fiscal Year 2025 budget request. There was lots of talk about China, Ukraine, Israel, energy, and procurement, but shockingly little talk of the number one threat to national security: the debt.
Admiral Mike Mullen, then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, famously began banging this drum all the way back in 2010, when total public debt was a “mere” $13 trillion, stating, “The most significant threat to our national security is our debt.” Today, that debt is more than $34 trillion and growing, making the 2010 figure almost quaint by comparison.
Numerous wonks, organizations, and lawmakers continue to sound the alarm on a consistent basis. Writing in 2012, Brookings Institute experts laid out the case explaining that the need to service our growing debt could crowd out other national priorities, impede economic growth, and undermine our role on the global stage. In 2016, the Coalition for Fiscal and National Security, a group chaired by Mullen and comprised of other top national security leaders including former secretaries of defense under both Republican and Democratic administrations, released a letter stating, “Putting our budget onto a sustainable path is thus a fundamental precondition for future prosperity and security.” Scholars at the Cato Institute pointed out, “Unsustainable fiscal policy imperils American economic and military strength.” Even Goldman Sachs, responding to the U.S. credit downgrade from AAA to AA+ by rating agency Fitch, warned that our indebtedness threatened our ability to borrow as needed, weakening the economy, which could “pose increased national security threats and increase US’ vulnerability to geopolitical shocks.”
As the fall downgrade demonstrates, these were not empty threats. Low interest rates have not proven to be an immutable reality, saving us from the true cost of our profligacy. Instead, just as feared, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reports that outlays just for the interest on all this debt will eclipse spending on national defense—the largest category of discretionary spending—this year. And within 10 years, debt as a percentage of gross domestic product could reach levels never before recorded. This, of course, assumes the best-case scenario with federal policies and human action encased in amber: no new wars or international conflicts; no major natural or manmade disasters; no pandemics or terror attacks; no government shutdowns; and no other economic, technological, or political shocks that could undermine confidence in the U.S. economy.
A 10-year fiscal deep freeze is unlikely. That’s why it’s surprising that not only was the national debt not a key topic of discussion at the SASC hearing, Secretary Austin was practically berated for submitting a budget that adhered to the statutory caps—aka following the law—and not asking for more funding. SASC members also pressured the secretary about the need for future spending increases, which he agreed could be necessary. However, as the CBO and others make clear, without significant budget and spending reforms, the availability of those future funds is far from certain.
Fortunately, not everyone is ignoring the 34-trillion-ton elephant in the room. In every Congress since 2018, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) has introduced a resolution recognizing the national debt as a threat to national security. So far, the House has not taken any action on the resolution. Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) has likewise led the charge against unaffordable overspending in his chamber, where only three weeks ago his companion resolution on the debt as a national security threat passed unanimously.
While the leadership shown by these two lawmakers should be applauded, it reveals a lack of seriousness among legislators to act on their stated values and make the tough changes necessary to avoid fiscal calamity. By continuing to ignore the debt bow wave, SASC members and their colleagues are compounding our vulnerability to many kinds of threats and undermining the DOD’s ability to respond. And unlike some other true emergencies, no one can claim they didn’t see this coming.
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