What If Pennsylvania Opened Primary Elections to All Voters?
Introduction
This post investigates the impact of opening primary elections to all voters and how that can benefit Republicans in states like Pennsylvania.
Currently, Pennsylvania law restricts primary election participation only to voters registered with one of the political parties—a system known as a “closed” primary. By contrast, an “open” primary allows all voters to participate.
Republicans Lost a Winnable Senate Seat in 2022
The 2022 U.S. Senate election provides the clearest example of how closed primaries likely cost the Republican Party a key race, giving Democrats a 51-49 majority in the chamber. In the closed Republican primary, daytime talk-show celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz and former hedge fund CEO and George W. Bush appointee David McCormick rose to the top of a seven-candidate field. Oz ran a campaign appealing to the “MAGA” Republican base, ultimately securing an endorsement from President Donald J. Trump, while McCormick secured endorsements from pre-Trump figures like Sen. Ted Cruz and former senator Rick Santorum.
Republican voters in the closed primary narrowly selected Oz by less than 1,000 votes out of the 1,350,000 votes cast.
Over the next six months of the campaign, despite headwinds in favor of the GOP, Oz struggled to connect with voters and eventually lost to Democrat John Fetterman in November.
Pennsylvania’s Closed Primaries Amplify the Influence of Partisan Fringes
Had the state opened primaries to all voters, it is possible that the larger primary electorate would have reduced the influence of the populist fringe and put forward a more appealing candidate in the general election. Rather than scrambling to outflank each other to secure Trump’s endorsement, the front-running candidates would have had greater incentive to capture votes from independent voters willing to vote for a Republican but turned off by a Trump endorsement. In that case, it is possible that McCormick would have won—and that McCormick and Oz would have hesitated before pelting each other with populist-oriented negative campaigning, which put the eventual GOP primary winner in a weaker position for the general election.
Of course, opening primaries does not guarantee a strong general-election candidate. Republicans Kari Lake and Herschel Walker won open primaries in Republican-leaning Arizona and Georgia, respectively, but proved unacceptable options to voters in the general election. However, opening primaries nudges candidates toward more broadly appealing campaigns, which may make the difference in races as close as the 2022 Pennsylvania GOP primary.
Open Primaries Encourage More Voters to Become More Invested in the Candidates
Beyond the value that opening primaries may have on the way candidates run for office, it would also serve parties’ interests by creating stronger connections between their candidates and independent voters.
Research into political independents has long shown that few voters are truly “independent,” as most tend to consistently vote for one party or the other. But for those in the persuadable middle, participating in a primary election helps create an emotional bond with the candidates they choose—a valuable tool for securing votes in an election.
It should come as no surprise that in a state like Idaho, where the parties can choose whether to open their primaries to unaffiliated voters, Democrats—who are dramatically outnumbered by Republicans—open their primaries to all voters, hoping independent voters connect with candidates and continue to vote Democratic in general.
While Republicans in Idaho have such a commanding majority that they can choose to keep their primaries closed without consequences, Republicans in Pennsylvania, where elections are regularly close, are hamstringing themselves by not inviting more voters to participate in their primaries.
Conclusion
Setting aside the ethical arguments in favor of opening primaries, Republicans in states like Pennsylvania would benefit from such a move. Candidates would have a greater incentive to reach more voters—reducing reliance on a narrow support base while elevating strategies with broad general-election appeal—and parties would have another opportunity to promote their candidates to persuadable independents.