Trump picks self-defeating fight with Gov. Kemp

Donald Trump recently hosted a rally in Georgia and launched a volley of insults at one of his favorite punching bags, Republican Governor Brian Kemp.

At the campaign stop, Trump said of Kemp, “He’s a bad guy, he’s a disloyal guy and he’s a very average governor,” but targeting a wildly popular governor and fellow Republican in an important swing state seems like a grossly misguided campaign tactic. 

As if that wasn’t enough, Trump posted a long, rambling screed riddled with grammatical errors on Truth Social lambasting Georgia’s governor. “Brian Kemp should focus his efforts on fighting Crime,” Trump complained, “not fighting Unity and the Republican Party! His Crime Rate in Georgia is terrible, his Crime Rate in Atlanta is the worst, and his Economy is average.”

“He should be seeking UNITY, not Retribution, especially against the man that got him the nomination by Endorsement and, without whom, he could never have beaten Stacey Abrams,” Trump continued. “I don’t want [Kemp’s endorsement].”Judging by these statements, it seems that perhaps Trump is fighting against unity, but never mind that.

Trump is certainly taking an interesting approach in Georgia. While I have heard of “divide and conquer” tactics, Trump is adopting an “alienate and (hopefully) win” strategy in Georgia. Yet if Trump is serious about taking Georgia in November, then he might want to stop alienating voters and instead curry Kemp’s support, especially since the Peach State hasn’t seemed particularly enthusiastic about Trump.

Whether Republicans want to admit it or not, Georgia is in play. Biden won it outright nearly four years ago, and while Trump maintained a healthy polling lead over Biden this year, that lead has narrowed against Vice President Kamala Harris. The most recent polls show the Peach State in a virtual statistical tie, and Trump struggles to exert the same kind of influence here as he has elsewhere.

In fact, Trump is far from a king-maker in Georgia. In 2022, he endorsed 8 different statewide office-seekers, and only one of them was victorious on Election Day. Most of them lost by large margins. One of the primary election losers he endorsed was David Perdue who challenged Kemp, but the governor trounced him—garnering nearly 75 percent of the vote. What’s more, without Trump’s endorsement in 2022, Kemp handily defeated Democrat Stacey Abrams by 53.4 to 45.9 percent—a larger margin than he enjoyed in 2018.

The most recent polls also show that Kemp has a 63 percent approval rating, which is astounding given that the state is considered politically purple. All of this suggests that Georgia may not necessarily be Trump country, but it is definitely Kemp country. While the former president seems to acknowledge that unity is important for Republicans, let’s be honest: Trump needs Kemp much more than Kemp needs Trump right now.

What of Trump’s other attacks on Kemp about failing to curb crime and presiding over a lackluster economy? Georgia has been rated the best place to do business 10 years running; enjoys a 3.3 percent unemployment rate, compared to a 4.3 percent national average; and we have low taxes, a balanced budget and an overflowing rainy day fund. That sounds like responsible stewardship and a thriving economy.

Kemp has also signed multiple measures into law to address crime, and Forbes ranked Georgia as the 27th “least dangerous state.” While this is an average rating, Georgia clearly isn’t the crime-ridden wasteland Trump believes it is. Trump’s complaints about Atlanta’s crime rate likewise miss the mark. Atlanta and Fulton County have their own police forces and political leadership. Kemp has only limited influence over public safety decisions at the local level. Put simply, the buck doesn’t stop with him on Atlanta’s crime rate, although it has been improving.

While I have met Kemp before, I can’t tell you from experience what kind of person he is, but his response to Trump offers clues. “My focus is on winning this November and saving our country from Kamala Harris and the Democrats – not engaging in petty personal insults, attacking fellow Republicans, or dwelling on the past,” Kemp clapped back. “You should do the same, Mr. President.”

Kemp responded with great aplomb, and all of the data seems to show that he has been a successful governor. Perhaps that is why he is one of the country’s most popular governors and he has been able to thrive in a politically complex state—something Trump would be wise to keep in mind as he courts Georgia voters.