Time is right to reform Arizona’s primary elections

The 2024 election is fast approaching, and many Americans are wondering if Arizona will be a red state or a blue state next fall. But the reality is that Arizona is neither.

Recent statistics from the Arizona Secretary of State show unaffiliated voters accounting for 35% of the state’s 4.2 million registered voters, exceeding both the number of Republicans (34%) and Democrats (30%). Perhaps it should come as no surprise, then, that efforts to modify Arizona’s primary election system away from the calcified two-party system are gaining traction.

Over the past two decades, unaffiliated voters have been the fastest-growing voting bloc in Arizona, nearly doubling their share of the electorate from 18% to 35% and adding more than one million voters since 2000. They first passed the Democratic Party for the second-highest registration totals in 2011, held the top spot in 2014 and have now reclaimed that lead heading into 2024.

Despite this steady shift away from both political parties, Arizona continues to administer partisan primary elections designed around the idea that general elections should feature just two viable candidates: one Republican and one Democrat. While unaffiliated voters are permitted to vote in the partisan primaries, significant hurdles remain for unaffiliated candidates running for office.

In particular, state law requires independents to collect a significantly higher number of signatures in order to get on the general election ballot than candidates from the political parties. This provision limits competition and helps ensure the overwhelming majority of candidates appearing on the general election ballot are affiliated with the major political parties.

Arizona voters may have an opportunity next year to replace the current partisan elections with a “blanket primary” where all eligible candidates, regardless of political affiliation, would appear on the same ballot. All voters would then make their selections from that common list of candidates and, depending on which version of the proposal gets approved, up to five candidates would advance to the general election.

There are different ways to structure a blanket primary. For example, Washington and California employ a “top two” system, where the candidates receiving the two highest vote totals in the primary advance to the general election. This head-to-head matchup in the general ensures one candidate will receive a majority but it also can lead to suboptimal outcomes such as matchups between two members of the same political party.

Another version of the blanket primary is to advance more than two candidates to the general election, such as Alaska’s “top four” system—one of the options being considered in Arizona. The winner of the general election is then determined using an instant-runoff where voters rank candidates in order of preference and candidates get knocked out one by one until one reaches a majority of support. This creates an incentive for candidates to step outside their partisan bubbles and ensures that a winning candidate has broad support—a boon to Arizona’s growing bloc of independent voters.

With American politics becoming increasingly acrimonious, many Arizonans are opting out of the partisan squabble and are registering as independents. Yet while this trend toward independence shows no signs of letting up, the state’s primary elections are still tied to the two-party system. The time is right for voters to advance a blanket primary model that better reflects the modern Arizona electorate and restore a healthier political culture.