From Bloomberg:

Ercot’s outlook ignores the reality of drought and hot weather, said Beth Garza, a former Ercot market monitor who’s now a consultant for think tank R Street Institute. “All indications seem to point to a very hot, dry summer — similar to 2011,” Garza said in an email. Such weather is factored in under Ercot’s “extreme peak load” scenario, which would leave the state short if accompanied by “extreme” unplanned outages. “So unless we have typical forced outages and renewable output, there won’t be enough capacity.”

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