Reading the tea leaves on the 2025 legislative session

Sound the alarm and take cover; The Georgia General Assembly is set to reconvene on January 13 for its annual 40-day legislative session. For some, this is a time of concern and trepidation, which explains Gideon J. Tucker’s famous quip:  “No man’s life, liberty or property are safe while the Legislature is in session.”

I say most of this in jest. Policymakers have governed Georgia conscientiously. The Peach State has a balanced budget, enjoys a coveted AAA bond rating, is regularly named the best state to do business and levies a relatively low tax burden on its citizens. Put simply, we are largely in good shape, but there’s still plenty of work to be done in the coming year.

Unfortunately, it’s impossible to predict what will dominate the 2025 legislative session. After all, there will be plenty of pieces of legislation if prior years are any indicator. In the 2023-2024 legislative session, lawmakers introduced nearly 5,000 bills and resolutions. Despite the uncertainty preceding session, you should rest assured. I have read the tea leaves, and I am ready to make my predictions.

While legislators will be busy multitasking and debating many bills, they are only constitutionally required to pass one: the budget. Over the past few years, adopting the budget hasn’t been particularly contentious. Sure, members of the Legislature have quibbled over minor differences between Senate and House versions, but Georgia has enjoyed plentiful revenue over the past several years, which makes passing a budget much easier. That could change this year.

The Peach State’s tax collections have been flagging recently. In October, the governor’s office reported that revenues were down by 3.4 percent from the prior October. While it was a bad month, not all hope is lost. Tax revenue increased in the month of November.

Time will tell whether year-end collections will improve or worsen and how projections will look for the next fiscal year. However, I suspect finalizing the budget may be a little more contentious than it was in prior years as lawmakers revise budget estimates and look for ways to plug budgetary holes, which is never a popular proposition.

While members of appropriations will be busy with budget disputes, there will be ample time to consider other legislation, and between technological innovations, study committees and the governor’s statements, you can bet that tort reform, artificial intelligence and culture wars will loom large over session.

After failing to pass a large, ambitious slate of tort reform bills earlier this year, Gov. Brian Kemp appears to have doubled down on his intention to get it across the finish line in 2025. “Kemp is backing tort reform as a pro-business measure that would stop frivolous lawsuits from driving up insurance premiums to the point that the costs prevent Georgia businesses from creating jobs,” reports Capitol Beat.

Earlier this year, the Legislature passed a couple of modest measures, but to help Georgians and eliminate the unfortunate dishonor of being ranked as the country’s number one “judicial hellhole,” legislators need to think bigger. They will likely start by revisiting efforts to reform premises liability, which allows plaintiffs to sue companies for crimes that didn’t happen on their property, and the seatbelt gag rule. The latter prohibits juries from considering whether plaintiffs were wearing their seatbelt in car accident cases when apportioning damages.

These will result in some knock-down drag-out legislative fights, but others likely also await. As the use of artificial intelligence spreads and it becomes even more advanced, there will be a rush to further regulate it. In fact, last year there were pieces of legislation to put guardrails around it, including one related to deepfakes and election interference. It nearly passed, but got bogged down in the waning hours of session. I’d imagine it—and others—will return next year.

These are important measures that will face some strong opposition, but they won’t create fireworks quite like the issue of amateur athletics. Last session, the Senate authorized the creation of the Special Committee on the Protection of Women’s Sports. It is tasked with studying “the conditions, needs, issues, and problems related to the protection of women’s sports in Georgia at the K-12 and college levels.” Despite the vague description, it is charged with mulling the topic of transgender athletes. Study committees often result in legislation, and whatever bills stem from this, they will attract national attention and result in some bitter debates.

The legislative session lasts 40 legislative days and generally wraps up in the Spring. Until it does, be vigilant because just about anything is possible in the Gold Dome.