Georgia housing market may be nearing tipping point

If you are one of the untold number of Georgians impatiently waiting for the housing market to correct, then you may be in luck soon.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution even announced, “Metro Atlanta becomes buyers’ market—for those who can afford it,” but this is a bit of a confusing declaration.

If housing remains doggedly unaffordable, then it is hardly evidence of a buyer’s market, but there are some data points suggesting prospective buyers have room for some cautious optimism. This is a welcome change after years of malaise.

For some time, the housing market has been frozen in place thanks to a witch’s brew of factors: New housing development has lagged for years, an imbalance between supply and demand has led to surging prices and mortgage rates have remained near 25-year highs. In short, low supply and high costs have ravaged the market, but that might be changing.

“The median Atlanta sale price for homes has decreased by 2.5% year over year, pushing it into the top five U.S. metros with the biggest decreases,” reported the Journal-Constitution, and Zillow found that the average home value in Georgia has declined by 1.7% over the past year.

This is becoming concerning for those who purchased their homes during the pandemic boom—as homeowners realize they overpaid and are now underwater. “Tim Hur, a real-estate agent in Atlanta, is seeing more people willing to sell at a loss because they are fearful their equity will turn negative,” the Wall Street Journal notes.

A market imbalance and migration could be factoring into these shifts. High prices have sidelined many buyers, and now there are 63% more sellers than buyers in the Atlanta area. Across the state, there are 57,500 homes for sale, which is a 10% increase from last year, and homes stay on the market for about 48 days. This is 11 more days than last year, and around 35% of listings have decreased the asking price.

What’s more, after years of surging growth, Atlanta might be on track to contract. “Census data show more people from within the U.S. left metro Atlanta than moved to it during the 12 months that ended in mid-2024,” according to the Wall Street Journal.

“It was a modest decline, about 1,330 people. But it heralds a significant moment for the longtime growth magnet: This is the first time metro Atlanta lost domestic migrants since the Census Bureau started detailing these numbers three decades ago.”

Combined, it looks like the market may be improving—albeit modestly—for buyers, but Georgia isn’t in the same situation as some cities in Texas and Florida where markets are deflating quickly. Cape Coral, Fla., for instance, has perhaps the worst housing market in the country. When the city was booming, housing prices jumped by 75% in three years. Now many homeowners can’t sell their homes and some are going into foreclosure. Prices have tumbled by 11% in two years.

Meanwhile, “The [national] inventory of unsold homes on the market increased to 511,000 units, the highest level since October 2007, from 505,000 in May. At June’s sales pace it would take 9.8 months to clear the supply of new houses on the market, up from 9.7 months in May,” Reuters found.

Despite experiences outside of the Peach State and also housing developments here, it is still a challenging time to buy a home in Georgia. We only have 4 months’ supply of homes for sale; a six-month supply is considered healthy. The average home sales price is about $391,400, which is up from $235,000 in January of 2020. To reasonably afford a home in Georgia, you need household income of over $100,000, but the median household income is roughly $75,000.

Nationally, the housing market has entered unsure times, but don’t expect another 2008 crisis. A different set of circumstances caused that disaster, but the shifts in the current market could benefit homebuyers. While Georgia doesn’t necessarily mirror all of the national trends and its housing market remains somewhat stubborn, there are some signs of a market correction—at least a modest one—which should provide some relief to prospective homebuyers.