As Texas Latinos Move Rightward, Closing the Primaries Could Backfire on Republicans

Texas Republicans recently filed a lawsuit to close primary elections and restrict voting in GOP contests to those formally registered with the party. Their stated goal is to prevent Democrats or Independents from influencing Republican nominations and to ensure nominees reflect the values of the party’s base. But while the intent is to strengthen party identity, closing primaries could weaken Republican competitiveness in the long run. In a state as large and diverse as Texas, success depends on building coalitions beyond the party base—and open primaries help make that possible. Closing primaries would disenfranchise independent voters while doing little to strengthen the party. Although it might serve as a better ideological purity test, it would narrow the GOP’s coalition and risk isolating the very voters who helped Republicans win in recent years.

Under Texas’ current system, any registered voter—Republican, Democrat, third party, or unaffiliated—can choose which primary to participate in. Once chosen, the voter must stick with that party’s ballot for the remainder of the election cycle. This flexibility allows independents and moderates to have a voice in choosing the candidates who may ultimately represent them. This system has worked well for Texas, where an estimated 3 million voters are unaffiliated.

Since 2016, the Republican Party has made remarkable gains among Latino voters across Texas. GOP candidates performed better than expected in rural areas and big cities alike, reshaping the political map and changing the balance of power in many places. A 2024 analysis found that Latino voters were key to Republican victories in several competitive races, as the party’s emphasis on family, faith, and opportunity resonated with working-class Texans across ethnic lines. In the predominantly Hispanic Rio Grande Valley, GOP primary turnout nearly doubled from 2018 to 2022, as Latino voters increasingly engaged with the party. For a brief period prior to the 2024 election, polling data showed that Latino Texans actually leaned slightly more Republican than Democrat—a first in the history of the Texas Politics Project survey.

The GOP advantage among Latinos has since dissipated, but it demonstrates that Texas Republicans can reach beyond traditional partisan boundaries and become competitive in regions previously dominated by Democrats. Closing primaries would send the opposite message: that the party is more interested in catering to insiders than in persuading newcomers. While the open primary system allows individuals whose political identification is fluid or changing to easily engage with whichever party attracts them, a closed system with mandatory registration would likely discourage such engagement and dampen turnout altogether.

Open primaries encourage candidates to engage with a wider audience and tend to produce electorates that are more representative of the greater constituency. To win, candidates must appeal not only to their party’s base but also to independents and crossover voters who might support them in November. Closing primaries would shrink the electorate to an ideologically homogenous block, pushing candidates to mirror the positions of a small slice of their voters and making it harder to win competitive general elections.

Texas’ political reality is in flux. Recent polling finds that President Donald J. Trump’s approval rating in the state has declined from just over 50 percent at the start of his second term to approximately 43 percent now. At the same time, the share of Democrats who identify as moderate or even conservative remains high at around 36 percent. These are precisely the kinds of voters Republicans must reach to preserve their stronghold and potentially grow more competitive in left-leaning areas. Open primaries help make that outreach possible.

Texas Republicans have built a strong winning political coalition by growing their tent and bringing in new voters. The state’s open primary system contributes to that success by giving all voters a stake in the process and rewarding candidates who can build majorities beyond their own faction. Restricting primaries could reverse that progress and undermine the GOP’s future competitiveness in the state. In the end, the party that listens to the most Texans will emerge as the strongest. Keeping primaries open is not just good for the republic—it is good politics.