Americans are Prepared for AI-Generated Misinformation
AI-generated misinformation will impact the 2024 election, but the impacts will be less significant than feared. AI and its potential to fuel disruptive election misinformation has been a hot topic in the media and among government officials in the lead up to the 2024 election cycle. Over the past year, real-life examples of AI-generated deepfakes of Joe Biden and Donald Trump contributed to concerns that AI was leading us into a post-truth world and drove policy responses from lawmakers seeking to regulate deceptive use of the technology.
However, 60 percent of states have completed their primary elections this year and, so far, there have been no meaningful AI-driven disruptions. That does not mean we are out of the woods for November. However, elevated public awareness around the threat, extensive preparations by local election officials, and advances in detection technology suggest that the actual impacts will be far less significant than originally feared.
Credit to the People
One critical defense against misinformation is an informed public and polling suggests that Americans are well aware of the potential risks of AI-generated misinformation. For example, an October AP poll found nearly 60 percent of Americans expect AI to increase the spread of election misinformation. More recently, an April survey from Elon University indicates over three-quarters of the population anticipates deceptive uses of AI will impact the outcome of the presidential election.
These statistics are concerning, but they indicate a strong public understanding of the risks. Voters have taken a defensive posture when consuming information, which is a good thing, as healthy public skepticism can function as a bulwark against deception.
Preparation Can Reduce Risks
At the same time, state and local election officials are taking important steps to mitigate the effects of AI-generated misinformation by conducting planning exercises for election administrators to practice responding to various adverse events, including scenarios related to deepfakes and misinformation. Anticipating these situations and formulating responses in advance can help prevent minor incidents from accelerating into major disruptions to the election process.
Additionally, election officials are engaged in proactive public communications to solidify their status as the go-to source of trusted information about voting times, locations, and procedures. Building this trust in advance will give voters confidence about where to turn if they encounter suspicious information about a closed polling location or a change to the election schedule.
Finally, technology that identifies deepfakes is getting better every day. While current versions of AI detection tools are not perfect, market competition will provide a strong financial incentive to develop effective tools that will ultimately benefit voters and the entire information environment.
Overall, AI follows in the footsteps of past communication technologies that were poised to disrupt American elections–including radio, television, computer, the internet, and photo- or video-editing software. Yet, our democracy persists. And while AI-generated misinformation will certainly impact the 2024 election to a minor extent, the intelligence and ingenuity of Americans will prevail over time.
Read the second in this series here.