A Framework and Resource Guide for Cybersecurity Crowd-Forecasting
WASHINGTON (December 8, 2021) Today, the R Street Institute released its final paper in a three-part series exploring how a cybersecurity-specific crowd-forecasting platform could benefit policymakers and the private sector in the wake of increased cyberattacks in recent years.
In this new analysis, Cybersecurity and Emerging Threats fellow Mary Brooks and former deputy assistant secretary for policy in the Department of Homeland Security, Paul Rosenzweig, lay out the existing landscape of prediction markets and other crowd-forecasting projects before offering a roadmap for what a cybersecurity prediction platform could look like in practice. They focus on researching how to formulate questions that would make a platform truly effective, valuable and usable by both experts and policymakers in the cybersecurity space.
“In recent years, we have repeatedly seen cybersecurity professionals warning about dangerous trends long before they erupt into crises,” explained Brooks, “we think there is a good chance that crowd-forecasting techniques could help us take advantage of the community’s insights to make for a more proactive, effective and tailored cybersecurity response.”
Rosenzweig added: “Cybersecurity lacks data about how well it works. It is an art, not a science. A prediction market is a way to try to mature the field.”
The new paper follows on earlier work by the two authors. In July they examined the history of prediction markets and their potential value to the growing cybersecurity ecosystem. And earlier in December, Brooks and Rosenzweig published a second piece breaking down the types of questions that would make a cybersecurity prediction platform most valuable to policymakers.
The research portion of this project will culminate in February 2022, when they present at the 2022 RSA Conference. Anyone interested in participating in further studies that are outlined in this paper should reach out to Mary Brooks at [email protected].
Read the full study, “Betting on Cyber: Offering an Analytical Framework for a Cybersecurity Crowd-Forecasting Platform.”
Read, “Let’s Bet on the Next Big Policy Crisis—No, Really” in Lawfare. (July 13, 2021)
Read, “How Crowd-Forecasting Might Decrease the Cybersecurity Knowledge Deficit” in Lawfare. (Dec. 6, 2021)