Financial Bubbles


, Urbane Cowboys Podcast
Urbane Cowboys Podcast with Josiah Neeley
Media Coverage

Kevin Erdmann of the Mercatus Center joins R Street’s Josiah…

, Financial Times
We can’t help feeling that we today are smarter
Alex J. Pollock

Martin Wolf is certainly correct that “further financial crises are inevitable” (March 20). Let me add one more reason why this is so — another procyclical factor rooted in human nature. This…

Higher interest rates and the looming end of the second real estate double bubble
Alex J. Pollock

At this point, the most important thing about U.S. housing finance is that long-term interest rates are rising. The rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages, the benchmark U.S. mortgage instrument, has…

Predicting is hard…
Alex J. Pollock

From Reuters, on June 27, 2017:
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Tuesday that she does not believe there will be another financial crisis for at least as long as she lives.

Remarks at AEI’s ‘Conference on the 10th anniversary of the financial crisis’
Alex J. Pollock

Thanks, Peter. It’s a pleasure to be in a panel with such distinguished colleagues.

I’d like to begin by pointing out that, in addition to being the instructive 10th anniversary we have been…

, Financial Times
Efforts to close the ‘doom loop’ are destined to fail
Alex J. Pollock

Thomas Huertas (“Bank holdings of sovereign debt need scrutiny,” September 7) makes very reasonable proposals of how to control the “doom loop” of government debt making the banking system…

Seven decades of the inflation-adjusted Dow Jones Industrial average
Alex J. Pollock

Everybody has observed the renewed volatility of stock prices during the last few months. But for all the volatility, so far, the stock market has moved basically sideways since the end of 2017. The…

, RealClearMarkets
What you would have made if you bought big lenders in 2006
Alex J. Pollock

Lending money is a risky business. Lending money when the lender is itself highly leveraged is more risky yet. How bad can the result of this simple fact be for investors in common stock? And have…

What’s in a name of a Banking Committee?
Alex J. Pollock

Adair Turner, whose insights into finance among other contributions got him promoted to Lord Turner, has concluded that lending on housing and other real estate is by far the largest creator of…

The Bubble Economy – Is this time different?
Alex J. Pollock

Two decades after Alan Greenspan’s famous “irrational exuberance” speech at AEI in 1996, Dr. Greenspan spoke at AEI again, addressing record-high global stock and bond market prices following…