Cloudy crystal ball
The Federal Reserve, that alleged master of financial “systemic risk,” completely failed to forecast the biggest credit event of current times: the collapse in oil prices. Of course, the Fed was not alone in missing the coming vertiginous drop in the price of oil—a price on which plenty of now-painful leverage had been built.
Andrew Bary’s forecasting challenge of a year ago (“Winner of Barron’s Forecast Quiz,”Jan. 30) included a question on where the price of oil would be at the end of 2015. The choices were: under $50; $50 to $65; $66 to $90; or above $90. Note there was no choice for “under $40,” the more correct answer. Barron’s could instructively publish how the 1,700 entrants in the challenge voted on this question.
